On historical returns and venture capital flavours

Story of of the last few years in Venture Fund Land : large institutional investors concentrate money with fewer managers and flagship brands AND / OR find emerging managers.

Since VC offerings have generally been undifferentiated, LP’s had little choice when it came to the plethora of venture funds knocking on their doors but to overweight historical returns in their decision making algorithms.

Now the market is in radical reduction mode (speaking of the number of ACTIVE venture firms out there) and every venture firm has to answer a simple existential question : why do you even exist ?  Is there a valid reason to your existence beyond the funneling of money from A to B and the siphoning of management fees ?  What do you stand for ?  Why does the market need you ?

So the LP’s have done two things:

  • Concentrate more money with fewer managers
  • Radically concentrate their bets into differentiated offerings

You can group these offerings into four broad categories:

  1. Flagship brands with both exceptional entrepreneur mindshare able to compete at whatever dollar amount required for halo deals (Accel, Sequoia, A16Z, KPCB, Greylock et al in SV, Spark in Boston)
  2. Highly focused funds with dominant presence in their chosen field or area of focus but (broadly) choosing to remain small (USV, Foundry, Benchmark, First Round)
  3. Turnaround stories / successful generational transition stories of strong or formerly strong brands being reinvigorated by strong / hungry / rejuvenated GP teams and showing signs of outperformance (CRV, Mayfield, Atlas Venture) —  usually espousing the small / focused mantra described above
  4. Emerging managers, super angel funds whose size now allows institutional investments, hyper focused versions of the above (IA Capital Ventures, True Ventures, Felicis, Softtech et. al.)

Again, no matter which strategy you choose, your venture firm has to be able to compellingly answer that simple existential question : why do you even exist?  

Whenever any VC firm pitches their story, they’re always presenting their strategy as the one that works.  I am slightly amused by the constant back and forth between small and large funds, believers in seed and non-believers in seed, folks who pretend you should only play Seed and Acceleration rounds and not in the middle, or whatever flavour you think is going to work best in this cycle of fundraising.

Take NEA’s “Big is Beautiful” argument that bigger funds are bigger simply because they are, well, better.  Compare and contrast with Bill Gurley (Benchmark Capital) and his comments to LP’s (“Your Are Blowing It“) : “You’re in the field. And when you allocate [your capital] obsessively to firms in the top quartile, it will have an impact on how things play out. […] If you ask if people will take an excessive amount of money, the answer is yes.”

The reality is: no amount of historical market data analysis is going to tell you which fund to invest in next, especially given the speed of market disruption.  When the next guy comes in telling you he’s found a bullett proof may to make money on his fund, send him this: 


Source: great article by Levi Shapiro interview Felda Hardymon

See, for the LP, none of these odds are good enough to derive a systematic strategy.  And for the GP, many strategies will likely work. I’d happily put money in, say, 500Startups (an experiment to be sure, but an exciting one), First Round Capital, Atlas Venture (wink), Spark Capital and A16Z, thereby covering the entire curve style (admittedly with a bias to new managers).

I am not a believer in big funds because I would not know how to run one effectively.  We’ve found capital constraints to be a great friend.  So I am perfectly happy with a small-ish early fund where all partners are aligned through equal economics and a desire to make it as a team.  I’m in the Bill Gurley camp, and Benchmark has always been an inspiration.  But I won’t be the one telling you the NEA strategy won’t work.  It just might.  

It’s just not my strategy.  

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11 Responses to On historical returns and venture capital flavours

  1. Marc Brandsma says:

    As they say, past performance is no good indicator of future.

    • Doesn’t that table show exactly the opposite? If it’s correct, then it clarifies why LPs are concentrating their $ into the top-performing funds.

      • Fred Destin says:

        My point was that EVEN for tier I firms the odds of top performance being repeated are less than half = still low and too low to drive a strategy >> no formula to success based on historical returns

  2. Mark MacLeod says:

    Why do you even exist? Great question. I have seen several fund PPMs in the past. They’re all the same. Cut and paste. At Real, we definitely believe we are doing something differentiated and certainly look to the Firstrounds of the World for inspiration. You need to have a strategy beyond historical returns. We do. Check back with me in 8 years and I’ll tell you if it worked :)

  3. Dave McClure says:

    great post Fred… and thanks for the shout out :)

    (so does that mean you’d be an LP in our fund? ;)

  4. Thanks for Dave McClure twitting to help me find this great post Fred. As an emerging manager, who just raised Fund 1, its very, very difficult to differentiate yourself in a sea of VC. For us, we exist to enable great entrepreneurs. We find the best people we can find, with great technology and huge markets and we support them with capital, business development and advisors.

    • Fred Destin says:

      And frankly that by itself may not be enough. See we’re all singing the same tune. When an investor asks “what is your strategy” you need a super crisp answer. Funds like Foundry or USV have one.

  5. Linda Pullan says:

    Does good VC fund performance correlate with benefit for all or most of the portfolio companies beyond the few winners that drive IRR? What data exists?

    • Fred Destin says:

      I don’t think so. Getting a great investors tends to help on a number of fronts (recruitment, credibility with clients and acquirors etc) but it is easy to overestimate the impact on startup success. I thknk getting branded investors may impact your chances of success positively whether that is material or not I have no idea.

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